DEMITONResearch / Cost drift statistics / No published national figure for the cost of input price rises on fixed-price civil work as a share of contract value
No published national figure for the cost of input price rises on fixed-price civil work as a share of contract value
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No published national figure for the cost of input price rises on fixed-price civil work as a share of contract value: no defensible figure has been published (Australian Constructors Association and Arcadis, 2023; Australia; low confidence).
What it is. None - no Australia-wide source read gives unrecovered input price escalation as a measured share of contract value or of overrun.
Sample. Search terms: input price escalation fixed price contract; unrecovered cost increases percent of project budget; rise and fall clause; construction input price index road bridge; contractors absorbed escalation; Australian Constructors Association Arcadis survey; Infrastructure Australia market capacity input costs. Ten sources opened. A frequency exists: the ACA and Arcadis 2023 survey of builders says all respondents absorbed some unrecoverable 2022 material escalation, and for nearly half it was more than 10% of project budgets (their own estimates, once mitigations were applied), but it is a count of respondents, not a cost. The 2024 survey chart shows absorption in bands. Rates with no unit: ABS road and bridge output prices +6.0% (year to September 2026; the June 2026 quarter alone +4.5%); BITRE's alert +1.7% (year to September 2019).
What it is not. Recorded as none on purpose: no defensible Australia-wide figure was found for unrecovered input price escalation as a share of contract value, not that none exists. The ACA and Arcadis survey is the closest measure of the cause and is people's own estimates across all construction. Its PDFs sit at a new web address from the one in the 2023 release: the original links were refused with 403 and not worked around.
Where it came from
- Australian Constructors Association and Arcadis (2023), 2023 Construction Market Sentiment Surveyone-page infographic, 'Escalation absorption' chart; ACA release 2 May 2023 key statistics · source record
Considered and set aside
- Australian Constructors Association and Arcadis: Same survey a year on. A chart of escalation absorbed on projects during 2023 has bands (none, under 10%, 10 to 25%, over 25%) with no printed values, no sample size is stated, and it covers all construction. Reading the bar lengths would be an inference, so no figure is taken.
- Australian Constructors Association: Advocacy paper: some contractors saw supply costs rise up to 70% in a year; contractors must hold fixed prices for 12 to 18 months or even two to three years; rise and fall clauses uncommon. No measured cost to a contract. Table 1 has no printed values.
- Corinna Economic Advisory (Saul Eslake), prepared for the Civil Contractors Federation: For the 2026 oil shock: the CCF estimates 80 to 95% of civil contracts by number are fixed price; prices of bitumen, explosives and plastic pipe up 35% to 50% on anecdotal evidence. A share of contracts by count and anecdotes; the diesel scenario is filed under plant_fuel.
- Infrastructure Australia: Industry reports non-labour input price escalation of about 10 to 20% over 12 months (p.7), 51% of businesses had sought a contract variation and some build 10% variations into budgets. A sentiment range for prices, not a share of contract value lost.
- Infrastructure Australia: 68% of surveyed organisations saw non-labour input costs rise and 36% think prices have not peaked (p.37): perceptions of direction. No cost to a contract.
- Grattan Institute (Terrill, Emslie and Moran): Shows the ABS road and bridge producer price index flat 2013-16 then rising, and quotes a minister blaming market forces for a $3 billion overrun. Descriptive; no share of overrun is assigned to input prices.
- Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts: $32.8 billion of known cost pressures across the federal land transport program, with escalation handled ad hoc. The summary does not split by cause, and it is the owner's budget pressure.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: Road and bridge construction output price index up 6.0% over the year to September 2026 (146.6 to 155.4; our arithmetic). A price clients are charged, a rate with no unit in the schema, not a cost to a fixed-price contractor.
- Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE): BITRE's alert on the ABS road and bridge output price index: up 1.7% over the year to September 2019 against a ten-year average of 2.4% a year. A rate, and an output price.
- Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE): Materials are 40.77% of road construction cost (Table B2, filed as context): how much is exposed, not how much prices rose against what was priced.