Research / Cost drift statistics / Mean overrun from contract award, 16 Australian rail projects

Mean overrun from contract award, 16 Australian rail projects

Name: Mean overrun from contract award, 16 Australian rail projects
Creator: Demiton
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

23%of contract value

AustraliaModerate confidenceMoney at stake

23% of contract value: Mean overrun from contract award, 16 Australian rail projects (Love, Zhou, Edwards, Irani & Sing, 2017; Australia; moderate confidence).

What it is. 23% of original contract value, final versus original.

Sample. 16 rail projects by a single contractor, AU$0.5b+, mostly WA, 2011-2014. Scope changes accounted for 99% of the cost increase; lump-sum projects that overran averaged 12.83%.

What it is not. Mostly scope variations the owner paid, not contractor losses. Median 12.3% against a mean of 23%, so a few projects dominate. Recorded as money_at_stake for that reason.

Where it came from

Love, Zhou, Edwards, Irani & Sing (2017), Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects
abstract, p.1 and Table 2 of the open-access preprint · source record

overrun_signal/overrun_contract_award_rail · AU · F42 ·the record ·link to this figure ·dispute this figure(or email support@demiton.io)

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