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23% of contract value: Mean overrun from contract award, 16 Australian rail projects (Love, Zhou, Edwards, Irani & Sing, 2017; Australia; moderate confidence).
What it is. 23% of original contract value, final versus original.
Sample. 16 rail projects by a single contractor, AU$0.5b+, mostly WA, 2011-2014. Scope changes accounted for 99% of the cost increase; lump-sum projects that overran averaged 12.83%.
What it is not. Mostly scope variations the owner paid, not contractor losses. Median 12.3% against a mean of 23%, so a few projects dominate. Recorded as money_at_stake for that reason.
DEMITON