Final loss on 28 completed Australian infrastructure megaprojects, largest contractors

What it is. 7% of contract value, final profit at completion: the 9% tendered margin plus a further 7% (a 16-point swing).

Sample. 28 completed mega projects over A$500m, Australia, commenced 2000 to 2015, road, rail, water and social infrastructure, PPP and design-and-construct, from Tier 1 contractors' open-book project data.

What it is not. Megaprojects only: the paper excluded projects under A$500m because most of them made money, so this is not the loss on a typical civil job. The sample is selected for risk (PPP and D&C, alliances excluded). Grattan 2021, which cited it, doubts it: 'The study does not explain why shareholders would tolerate such a pattern of losses.'

Our arithmetic. Table 1, Total row: tendered profit A$3,328m at 9%, so contract value about A$37.0b; final profit A$(2,681)m, about (7.2%). The paper states the same result as "its original 9% profit margin plus a further deterioration of 7%" (abstract). Its "net profit (16%)" is final minus tendered, by its own definition on p.12, so it is not the loss as a share of contract value.

Where it came from

• Ryan & Duffield (2017), Contractor Performance on Mega Projects - Avoiding the Pitfalls · free copy
  Table 1, Total row (pp.12-13); definition of net profit (p.12); abstract (p.1) · source record

History

• 2026-09-25 Read at source for the first time (previously second-hand via Grattan 2021). The paper gives the final result as a share of contract value, so the figure moves from an unquantified margin swing to a 7% loss; the grade moves from low (second-hand) to moderate (a sample selected for risk).

overrun_signal/overrun_contractor_margin_swing · AU · F41, F42 ·the record ·link to this figure ·dispute this figure(or email support@demiton.io)