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24% of the first promised cost: Final cost over the first promised cost, 836 Australian transport projects (Terrill & Danks (Grattan Institute), 2016; Australia; moderate confidence).
What it is. 24% of the first publicly promised cost, final versus promised.
Sample. 836 Australian transport projects of $20m or more, 2001-2016; $28 billion over in total; 34% of projects went over.
What it is not. Measured from the first promise, mostly before any contractor is signed, and paid by the owner (the taxpayer). The median overrun is 0%: a few projects dominate the mean.
DEMITON